📋 Marvis Contribution · Structured Daily 7 sections · 24 items
一、原料药行情
1.1 甾体激素类原料药（持续上涨，厄尔尼诺推升成本）
| 品种 | 6月均价（元/kg） | 月环比涨幅 | 年初至今涨幅 | 驱动因素 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 氢化可的松 | 34,200 | +5.2% | +20.0% | 植物甾醇+27%~30%，印度高温限产 |
| 地塞米松磷酸钠 | 16,800 | +8.4% | +31.3% | 上游BA双降醇涨价，供需缺口扩大 |
| 螺内酯 | 23,200 | +5.9% | +20.8% | 厄尔尼诺影响持续，4-AD中间体紧张 |
7月预估：厄尔尼诺增强，印度工厂制冷成本占比升至17-18%、开工率降至约70%，甾体激素原料药仍有5%左右月涨幅预期。
1.2 抗生素类原料药（企稳回升）
| 品种 | 价格趋势 | 近期判断 |
|---|---|---|
| 6-APA | 企稳回升 | 触底反弹信号明确 |
| 青霉素工业盐 | 有所回落 | 短期承压，中期看需求回暖 |
| 阿莫西林 | 企稳回升 | 下游需求改善 |
| 氨苄西林 | 企稳回升 | 跟随6-APA上行 |
| 7-ADCA | 有所回升 | 头孢类中间体回暖 |
| 硫氰酸红霉素 | 稳步上涨 | 供需偏紧持续 |
| 阿奇霉素 | 稳步上涨 | 需求端支撑 |
| 克拉霉素 | 高位稳定 | 供给格局较好 |
| 罗红霉素 | 稳步上涨 | 供需双强 |
1.3 动保/兽药原料药（底部区域，部分品种止跌反弹）
| 品种 | 价格区间（元/kg） | 趋势 |
|---|---|---|
| 氟苯尼考 | 100-200 | 历史底部，均价持续下行 |
| 强力霉素（盐酸多西环素） | 333-365 | 止跌反弹，震荡抬升 |
| 盐酸土霉素 | 95-104 | 低位运行 |
| 磷酸替米考星 | 270-292 | 弱稳 |
| 硫酸粘杆菌素 | 114-123 | 偏弱 |
VPi（兽药原料价格指数）收于65.92，跌0.44%，整体仍偏弱。但强力霉素止跌反弹、工厂挺价意愿增强，行业加速出清，2026年有望迎来周期性回升。
1.4 肝素/碘造影剂原料药
- 肝素API：近两年价格基本企稳，处于周期底部区域，供过于求格局未根本改变
- 碘原料：受电子行业需求拉动，碘价有所回升，但较2022-2023年周期高点仍有距离
二、上游化工产品价格
2.1 关键化工原料（直接影响原料药成本）
| 品种 | 价格 | 日/周涨跌 | 备注 |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI原油 | 68.78美元/桶 | +0.13% | 霍尔木兹航运恢复+OPEC+8月继续增产，油价承压 |
| 布伦特原油 | 72.12美元/桶 | +0.45% | 较战时峰值下跌约43%，多投行下调目标价 |
| 进口颗粒硫磺 | 8,850元/吨 | -0.56%（周） | 市场心态不稳，长约为主，交投清淡 |
| 山东液体硫磺 | 9,113-9,270元/吨 | 连续冲高 | 竞拍氛围回暖 |
| 环氧丙烷 | 7,850元/吨 | 持平 | 主力工厂新单报盘价 |
| 丙二醇（工业级） | 8,475元/吨 | -0.88%（日） | 场内仍存看空预期 |
| 碳酸二甲酯 | 3,475元/吨 | -1.42%（日） | 随丙二醇联动走弱 |
2.2 成本传导链分析
| 传导链条 | 传导系数 | 时滞 | 当前状态 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 原油 → 化工溶剂/中间体 | ★★★☆☆ | 2-4周 | 原油偏弱，溶剂成本压力缓解 |
| 硫磺 → 抗生素/维生素 | ★★★★☆ | 4-8周 | 硫磺高位震荡，抗生素成本支撑仍在 |
| 植物甾醇 → 甾体激素 | ★★★★★ | 即时 | 同比+27-30%，甾体激素持续上涨 |
| 环氧丙烷 → 丙二醇/辅料 | ★★★☆☆ | 2-4周 | 环氧丙烷盘整，丙二醇弱势震荡 |
重点关注：OPEC+ 8月起继续增产18.8万桶/日，霍尔木兹海峡航运逐步恢复（6月海湾出口突破1000万桶/日），花旗预测年底油价可能回落至60美元。若油价持续走弱，化工溶剂类成本将下行，对以合成为主的原料药企业构成成本利好。
三、药用辅料与包材
3.1 辅料
- 威尔药业（603351）：药用辅料龙头，受益于医药板块整体反弹，6月底以来估值修复
- 红日药业：6月16日以1,947.26万元转让连云港万泰医药辅料50.98%股权给威尔药业，行业整合加速
- 辅料行业整体格局稳定，头部企业受益于集采后制剂企业降本需求，国产替代趋势明确
3.2 包材（药用玻璃/胶塞）
| 品种 | 价格区间 | 趋势 |
|---|---|---|
| 药用西林瓶（10ml常规） | 0.08-0.25元/支 | 稳中有升 |
| 特种玻璃瓶（10ml耐低温） | 0.20-0.50元/支 | 需求增长 |
| 冻干瓶/西林瓶（高端） | 0.50-1.20元/支 | 生物药拉动 |
| 避光瓶（10ml棕色） | 0.15-0.35元/只 | 稳定 |
- 力诺药包：3月起对中硼硅安瓿瓶、西林瓶等核心产品提价5%-15%，量价齐升；RTU（免洗免灭）包材出海加速，境外收入占比突破30%
- 华兰股份：药用胶塞龙头，覆盖国内医药工业百强约88%，受益于高质量药包材需求提升
- 第十一批集采落地后，竞争向质量分层评审转变，高端药包材价值凸显
四、医药板块行情
4.1 A股医药板块（7月第1周：强势领涨）
| 指标 | 数据 |
|---|---|
| 医药生物指数周涨幅 | **+10.53%** |
| 跑赢沪深300 | +11.07pct |
| 资金净流入 | +30.5亿元 |
| 创新药指数周涨幅 | +7.24% |
- **子板块涨幅排名（7月第1周）**：
- **核心驱动**：
- 6月29日医保双目录初审结果公示（557个药品通过，通过率92%、同比+8pct）
- 7月3日 NMPA发布CGT（细胞与基因治疗）三大新政，板块情绪全面点燃
- 创新药预申报机制、高价创新药8年价格保护、一类原创药专利期集采豁免等政策落地
- 美联储降息预期升温，利率敏感型创新药板块估值修复
4.2 重点药企动态
| 企业 | 周涨幅 | 核心动态 |
|---|---|---|
| 恒瑞医药 | +11.88% | 3款药物获批临床（SHR-8068/阿得贝利单抗/阿帕替尼）；注射用瑞康曲妥珠单抗上市申请获受理并纳入优先审评（累计研发投入约20.77亿元）；Q1收入81.41亿元，创新药占比超60% |
| 百济神州 | +15.02% | 泽布替尼全球销售持续放量，全球市场对垒原研药实现反超 |
| 百利天恒 | +29.48% | ADC领域核心资产，与BMS达成152亿美元合作 |
| 科伦药业 | +34.78% | 科伦博泰ADC竞争力突出 |
| 映恩生物-B | +32.19%（港股） | 频繁回购，管理层信心强烈 |
| 康诺亚-B | +27.01%（港股） | 司普奇拜单抗三大适应症纳入医保，与吉利德达成超21亿美元全球合作 |
4.3 港股创新药板块
- 恒生港股通创新药指数周内大涨
- 创新药跨境授权合作（License-out）持续超预期
- 机构建议下半年"哑铃策略":一端创新国际化，一端传统红利压舱石
五、新药审批动态
5.1 上市申请受理
| 时间 | 企业 | 药品 | 事项 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7月3日 | 翰宇药业/三生蔓迪 | 司美格鲁肽注射液（减重） | CDE受理（5个受理号，覆盖主流规格） |
| 7月3日 | 中国生物制药（泰德制药） | 盐酸罗哌卡因缓释溶液 | CDE受理（全球首款切口内涂布长效镇痛新药，72h持续镇痛） |
| 7月2日 | 恒瑞医药（盛迪亚） | 注射用瑞康曲妥珠单抗 | CDE受理并纳入优先审评 |
5.2 临床试验批准
- 恒瑞医药：SHR-8068注射液（抗CTLA-4）、阿得贝利单抗注射液（PD-L1）、甲磺酸阿帕替尼片获批临床试验
5.3 突破性治疗/优先审评
- 石药集团（巨石生物）：注射用SYS6043纳入突破性治疗品种（铂耐药卵巢癌等）
- 原料药优先审评政策（7月1日实施，8月1日落地）：四类原料药可走优先审评通道——境外替代原料药、短缺原料药、配套优先制剂原料、原研境内转移原料
六、行业政策动态
6.1 本周核心政策
| 时间 | 政策/事件 | 影响评估 |
|---|---|---|
| 7月3日 | NMPA发布CGT（细胞与基因治疗）三大新政 | **重大利好**：30日快速审评通道、全链条提速审批，CAR-T/体内基因药/iPS细胞全线情绪拉升 |
| 7月1日 | 中成药注册新规正式执行 | **结构性洗牌**：超70%中成药批文安全信息"尚不明确"，未来3-5年预计20%-30%批文退出市场 |
| 7月1日 | 原料药优先审评政策实施 | **利好CDMO/特色原料药**：四类原料药优先审评 |
| 6月29日 | 2026年医保双目录初审公示 | **提振估值**：557个药品通过基本医保初审，54个通过商保创新药目录，通过率92% |
| 6月底 | 创新药预申报机制落地 | **制度性利好**：未拿证但完成审评即可提前申报，准入周期压缩约1年 |
6.2 中成药行业洗牌
- 步长制药2个月内注销2家子公司
- 康恩贝转让东阳康恩贝100%股权
- 华润三九挂牌转让湖北九州通等股权
- 44家中药企业大幅减员（济川药业减员66%、珍宝岛减员21.6%）
- 河南、宁夏密集开展中成药价格治理，部分品种降幅超60%
6.3 2026医保目录创新机制
- 预申报机制：解决新药错过年度申报窗口的痛点
- 8年价格保护：高价创新药享受8年医保价格保护期
- 集采豁免：一类原创药专利期内免于集采
- 双目录联动：基本医保+商保创新药专属目录同步推进
七、总结与展望
7.1 本周关键判断
1. 原料药：甾体激素类受厄尔尼诺高温持续推涨，7月预计仍有5%左右月涨幅；抗生素类企稳回升信号明确；动保原料药处于周期底部，行业加速出清，关注反转机会。 2. 化工上游：原油受OPEC+增产+霍尔木兹航运恢复双重压力偏弱运行，化工溶剂成本有望下行；硫磺高位震荡，对含硫抗生素成本仍有支撑。 3. 医药板块：政策面多重催化（CGT新政+医保目录创新机制），医药生物单周+10.53%领涨全市场，创新药估值修复行情确认，短期需关注获利回吐压力。 4. 政策面：CGT新政是本周最强催化剂，医保目录制度性改革（预申报+价格保护+集采豁免）修复创新药长期估值中枢，中成药行业监管收紧加速尾部出清。
7.2 本周关注（7月7日-11日）
- 7月5日医保目录初审公示截止后的市场反应
- CGT新政征求意见稿后续细则
- OPEC+增产节奏及油价走势对化工成本端影响
- 中报业绩预告窗口期，关注原料药企业盈利修复情况
- 创新药板块能否延续强势，关注高位获利了结压力
I. Pharmaceutical Market Overview 6 items
Product: Hydrocortisone | Jun Avg Price: CNY 34,200/kg | MoM Change: +5.2% | YTD Change: +20.0% | Driver: Phytosterol +27%~30%, India high-temp production limits. (See Marvis contribution for full table)
July forecast: El Niño intensifying, India plant cooling cost share rises to 17-18%, operating rate drops to ~70%, steroid hormone APIs still expected to rise ~5% MoM.
Product: 6-APA | Price Trend: Stabilizing rebound | Recent Assessment: Clear bottom-bounce signal. (See Marvis contribution for full table)
Product: Florfenicol | Price Range: CNY 100-200/kg | Trend: Historical bottom, avg price continues to decline.
VPi (Veterinary API Price Index) closed at 65.92, down 0.44%, still weak overall. Doxycycline stopping decline and rebounding, factories' willingness to hold prices is strengthening, accelerating industry clearance. A cyclical recovery is expected in 2026.
Heparin API: Prices broadly stable over the past two years, in a cyclical bottom area, with supply-demand imbalance not fundamentally reversed. Iodine raw materials: Pulled up by electronics industry demand, iodine prices have recovered, but still some distance from the 2022-2023 cycle peak.
II. Key Pharma Company Updates 8 items
A pharmaceutical company was ordered to halt production, with regulators citing non-compliance with production quality requirements. The case has drawn industry attention.
Recently, Yisheng Pharmaceutical announced that on July 1, 2026, it received a notice from the Jilin Drug Administration that inspections from June 26-28 found serious defects and safety hazards in Bujin Tablets, ordering the suspension of production/sales of related Shengmai Injection and Bujin Tablet production lines for rectification.
A Hong Kong pharmaceutical company completed a CNY 100M acquisition involving formulation, treatment, injection, indication, inhaler, and drug registration application expansion.
Industry consolidation intensifies: 7 pharmaceutical companies were acquired while 16 new pharma companies were established, reflecting ongoing structural reshaping of the industry.
A well-known pharmaceutical company was acquired for CNY 266M, marking another transaction in the CRO sector as consolidation continues.
Multinational pharmaceutical companies are bringing CNY 100B+ in investment, with policy support and BD transactions accelerating the globalization process, boosting Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETFs.
The revenue structure of innovative pharmaceutical companies has formed a 'dual-driver' pattern, with biologics and chemical pharmaceuticals accounting for over 85% of the weighting in Hong Kong stocks.
Multiple innovative drug approvals plus a wave of pharma company buybacks have driven A+H pharma stock rebounds, boosting HK innovative drug ETFs including GF's.
III. New Drugs & Regulatory Approval 12 items
NMPA announced that eligible Cell & Gene Therapy (CGT) drugs will be included in the 30-day rapid approval channel. Separately, Yisheng Pharma's Bujin Tablet was found to have serious defects and has had its production and sales suspended.
55 drug varieties have been included in centralized procurement, ensuring the public has access to quality medicines at affordable prices, in line with ongoing national healthcare reform goals.
Optimization of the drug centralized procurement system is underway, aiming to give the public greater confidence in medicine quality and access.
A world-first innovative drug has been launched in Chengdu, with China's bispecific ADC (antibody-drug conjugate) achieving global leadership in this cutting-edge therapeutic area.
Yangtze River Pharmaceutical's new anti-ED drug Taitoutou has officially launched, expanding the company's portfolio in men's health therapeutics.
A new drug for thyroid eye disease with a shorter treatment course has been approved by the US FDA under the brand name Lumvoa, offering patients a more convenient therapeutic option.
Policy and industry are resonating: 19 new drugs have been approved and 557 drugs have entered the medical insurance catalog, boosting innovative drug ETFs such as E Fund's.
In this week's stock review, Lukang Pharma's (600789) controlling subsidiary has received a drug registration certificate, expanding the company's product portfolio.
China Resources Double-Crane announced that its subsidiary has obtained a drug registration certificate for progesterone soft capsules, adding to its women's health product line.
Multiple pharmaceutical companies have obtained drug registration certificates, with innovative drug layout and asset integration advancing in parallel across the industry.
Multiple listed companies have stated they are pushing label revisions in response to NMPA requirements, covering drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and oral liquid formulations.
Fosun Pharma announced that its drug registration application for Shaoyao Gancao Tang Granules (a traditional Chinese medicine formula) has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration.
IV. Industry & Regulatory Policy 8 items
#1
Detailed explanation of new drug regulations to sever the medical-drug interest chain - China.com
A detailed explanation of new drug regulations aimed at severing the interest chain between medical institutions and pharmaceutical companies, strengthening governance and transparency.
Online prescription drug sales face major changes with new rules taking effect in May: real-name authentication required, pharmacist oversight, prohibition on livestream sales, with direct penalties for violations.
From July, a series of new regulations will take effect, impacting daily life including drug-related policies and other areas.
New pharmaceutical regulations have been issued, with several key changes that industry participants and the public need to be aware of.
The Health Commission (formerly NHFPC) has issued new rules combining promotion and restraint measures to foster healthy development of the pharmaceutical industry.
From July onwards, multiple new regulations will take effect, covering drug regulations, injections, social assistance, capsules, and medical insurance — affecting daily life.
A batch of new livelihood regulations officially takes effect on July 5, with adjustments to elderly care and medical insurance policies. The public is advised to be aware in advance.
An overview of the latest medical insurance policy in Guangdong Province, covering reimbursement rates, drug catalog updates, and beneficiary impacts.
V. Core Chemical Raw Materials 2 items
On June 29, the chemical raw materials sector declined by 2%, reflecting market pressure on chemical raw material prices amid weak downstream demand.
Recent data on chemical raw material price increases, covering key product categories and their drivers in the current market environment.
VI. Chemicals Sector Trends 8 items
Sulfuric acid price flash from Jiangsu Shuangshi Fine Chemical, providing real-time market reference for one of the most important industrial chemicals.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced: chemical industry production will be stopped or restricted for 4 months, with full stoppage during heavy pollution periods.
Multiple chemical companies are facing production restrictions, with implications for supply chains and downstream industries dependent on chemical inputs.
Everbright Securities analysts believe the market will gradually shift from being sentiment-driven to being performance-driven, with fundamental factors taking precedence.
Weekly industry tracking: in the fluorochemical market from June 27 to July 3, liquid chlorine prices dropped significantly month-on-month, with implications for downstream fluoropolymer producers.
Daily isopropanol price reference for July 3, 2026 from China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Network, providing spot market data for this key solvent.
On July 3, Tongling Chemical's phthalic anhydride quote dropped, reflecting ongoing price weakness in the plasticizer precursor market.
Daily PVA (polyvinyl alcohol) price reference for July 3, 2026, providing spot market data for this key polymer used in adhesives, films, and textile sizing.
VII. Industrial Policy & Environmental 7 items
A batch of key projects were signed in Changzhou, covering sectors including pharmaceuticals, environmental protection, and new materials, with implications for local industry development.
Jingye Intelligence is positioning itself at the intersection of new energy, pharmaceutical, and environmental protection industries, riding the momentum of the nuclear technology era.
The 2026 Guangdong Law Academic Annual Conference was held in Guangzhou, with a focus on pharmaceutical and food compliance governance, bringing together legal and industry experts.
The National Medical Products Administration has issued the 'Implementation Opinions on AI + Drug Regulation', laying out a roadmap for AI-driven pharmaceutical oversight.
The NMPA's new 'AI + Drug Regulation' implementation opinions mark the beginning of a new digital-intelligent era for drug supervision, leveraging AI to enhance regulatory efficiency.
Tianfang Pharmaceutical is deeply cultivating green low-carbon development, strengthening the environmental foundation of the pharmaceutical industry through sustainability initiatives.
Northeast Pharmaceutical, a long-established pharma company, is increasing its environmental investment and walking the green development path as part of its sustainability strategy.